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Pharmaceutical industry: 100 billion market value is not a dream

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[Abstract]:
Source:BeijingMorningPost(Beijing)Thegrowthrateofthepharmaceuticalindustrysloweddownandenteredthenewnormal.FromJanuarytoOctober2015,thesalesrevenueofChina'spharmaceuticalmanufacturingindustryincreased

Source: Beijing Morning Post (Beijing)
The growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry slowed down and entered the new normal. From January to October 2015, the sales revenue of China's pharmaceutical manufacturing industry increased by 9.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 3.94 percentage points year-on-year; the total accumulated profit increased by 13.75% year-on-year, and the growth rate rebounded slightly year-on-year. Compared with the previous rapid growth in revenue and profit, the growth of the pharmaceutical industry is still in the “low channel”. Looking forward to the development of “13th Five-Year”, the pharmaceutical industry as a whole will maintain the new normal of “stable growth in medium and high speed”.
On the one hand, the development of the pharmaceutical industry faces high policy pressures. This year, the reform of the drug approval review system is in great strength. CFDA has implemented a series of measures to solve the backlog of drug registration applications; the state promotes the consistency evaluation of generic drugs, promotes the system of drug listing license holders, and encourages the creation of new drugs. The short-term pain will bring the overall upgrade of the pharmaceutical industry and provide a good environment for enterprise innovation. The reform of the medical system has entered the deep water area, the policy of public hospitals has tightened, and the state has promoted the establishment of a graded diagnosis and treatment system. The high-pressure policy of the domestic pharmaceutical industry is difficult to change in the short term, but the society's rigid demand for the pharmaceutical industry still exists, and the domestic pharmaceutical industry is slowly moving forward under pressure.
On the other hand, growing pharmaceutical companies will embrace the market value of 100 billion. At present, the market value of domestic pharmaceutical companies is “three tripods”, and the market value of most pharmaceutical companies has reached between 5 billion and 20 billion yuan. Domestic pharmaceutical companies have entered a rapid growth period. However, in the winter of the industry, there are still opportunities for future growth-oriented pharmaceutical companies with a market value of 100 billion. These pharmaceutical companies must be rooted in a market with huge growth space. Tumors, diabetes, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, orthopedics and liver diseases will be cultivated. The most suitable soil for a 100 billion market value pharmaceutical company.
The growth path of 100 billion market value pharmaceutical companies has two modes: one is extremely specialized; the other is the industry chain platform. “Extreme Specialization” is the most typical representative of R&D growth path. Hengrui Medicine, this growth path is very test of patience, persistence and capital. Another growth path that is more in line with China's national conditions is “industrial chain platform”, the most typical representative is Kangmei Pharmaceutical. From the perspective of investment pragmatism, most pharmaceutical companies in China, especially listed companies with capital advantages, can consider the development strategy of “Building the whole industry chain” and supplementing with R&D construction. . The construction of the whole industry chain needs to create a pharmaceutical closed loop ecosystem of “medicine + device + service”, “three in one, “online + offline””.
The future of China's pharmaceutical market is huge, and the demand for medical services is growing. Large companies such as Hengrui Medicine and Kangmei Pharmaceutical have taken the lead in reaching the market value of 100 billion yuan. We are still confident in other high-quality potential pharmaceutical companies.